The Road to the Horizon

The Economist predicts which Arab countries are most vulnerable to revolutions...

Support to fractions at war in a country where a third country has a political, or economical interest is not new. We have seen it throughout the Cold War, we witnessed it in Afghanistan and Iraq throughout the past decennia. We have seen it in South and Central America. We still see it in Africa every day: support coming from Europe, China and more often than not, from the US makes its way through different channels and ends up with "proxies", military opposition fractions as if those were "fighting a war on behalf of"...

This video questions in how far the US is already engaging in a war with Iran, through its proxies, operating out of Iraq's Kurdish region, at the Iran/Iraq/Turkey border.

[Loband: Object Removed -]

Video courtesy current.com

[i-Neda Agha Soltan - the face of the Iran protests]

A young woman, Neda Agha Soltan, was shot dead during a protest in Tehran. She was not participating in the protests, but got stuck in a traffic jam close by. Many now see her as a symbol for people protesting against the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president. (Full)

Neda's death was caught on a mobile phone camera, and published on YouTube. I include the link here, but do not want to embed the video, nor could I watch it all the way through. The reality and cruelty of this video is shocking and images are extreme, so beware...

The video was posted by the doctor who rushed in to assist her. This is what he wrote:

Basij shot to death a young woman in Tehran on Saturday June 20th protests at 19:05 June 20th
Place: Karekar Ave., at the corner crossing Khosravi St. and Salehi st.
A young woman who was standing aside with her father watching the protests was shot by a basij member hiding on the rooftop of a civilian house. He had clear shot at the girl and could not miss her. However, he aimed straight her heart. I am a doctor, so I rushed to try to save her. But the impact of the gunshot was so fierce that the bullet had blasted inside the victim's chest, and she died in less than 2 minutes. The protests were going on about 1 kilometers away in the main street and some of the protesting crowd were running from tear gass used among them, towards Salehi St. The film is shot by my friend who was standing beside me. Please let the world know.

[i-Obama makes friends with Iran via Facebook]

More cartoons about Iran and the social media.
More cartoons the Iran elections.

Courtesy of International Herald Tribune, discovered via Social Entrepreneurship on Change.org

Updated June 22 2009

[i-Iran protests]

Here is the updated list of Twitter-ers on the ground in Iran:

[i-Gaza despite all odds]

Palestinian girls look out from the balcony of their house in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.

More Pictures of the Day on The Road

Picture courtesy Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters

[i-Get your message on The Wall]

Back in 2002, the Israeli government started the construction of "The Wall", a combination of wire fences and concrete walls separating Israeli from Palestinian territories. In several places, The Wall is formed by 8 meter high concrete blocks.

"The Wall" was constructed to prevent "the uncontrolled entry of Palestinians into Israel", in a desperate attempt to control the crossing of Palestinian militants and arms.
The Wall has been highly controversial in many ways, not at least because it splits communities into "ghettos" of isolation, while many see cooperation, if not integration, the way to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The Wall brought one opportunity, a lighter message - literally then: A Dutch-Palestinian project brings people together through wall graffiti. For 30 Euros you can send in your text via SendAMessage. Young Palestinians will spray your message on the wall and send you three digital pictures of the graffiti.

The benefits go to projects of the Palestinian Peace and Freedom Youth Forum putting youth at work in volunteering projects in their society. (Full)

A previous post reminded me of my time in Dubai.

How it was in 1991, the "Trade Center strip":

[i-dubai before]


This is how the "Trade Center strip" looked like when I arrived for the first time in Dubai in 2001:

[i-Dubai2003]


Most of the built-up area concentrates around the same area:

being built[i-being built]

You recognize the Trade Center strip on the top right corner. The whole area below that, the Business Bay area, is newly built up. Up to 2003 there was little more than sand. Actually, we built our offices there in January 2004 (see this short story)

I suggest you also have a look at this photo essay from the Boston Globe.

Pictures courtesy The Skyscraper blog, Dubai Architecture and most.com

This video is the first commercial of "Holocaust Survivors and Grown Up Green Leaf Party" in Israel

According to the video, about 1 million Israelis smoke weed.

Maybe if their party won the elections in Israel, everyone would be cool, man!

[Loband: Object Removed -]

Video discovered via Chris Blattman's blog

[i-dubai above the trouble or head in the clouds...]

Dubai expects its economy to expand by just under 2.5 percent in 2009 as real estate, construction and exports come under pressure. This growth figure comes in sharp contrast with the usual 8-9% yearly growth. (Full)

The hardest hit is, of course, the real estate market. A local rumour says that Emirates Airlines is still doing well, simply because it is flying so many expat workers back home.
Rumour or not, construction firms in the UAE confirm they are sending some 20,000 Indian workers back home next month. (Full).

Fact also is that almost 60 percent of real estate projects in Dubai, worth a total of $75 billion, are being either delayed or cancelled according to a new report by HSBC. (Full)

It is not just Dubai. Also the Emirate of Abu Dhabi takes serious hits: the leading real estate developers note drops in profit of up to 94% in the last quarter of 2008. Full)

And we have not reached bottom yet. While some property prices have fallen 50%, the prediction is the bottom will only be reached by the 2nd half of 2009. (Full)

Guess Emirates Airlines will continue to be busy repatriating expats for quite a while.

[Loband: Object Removed -]

Who would have thought selling cheap home loans in some US back quarters would have this ripple effect across the globe, hey?

Update: See also:
- Dubai Economy in Free Fall
- List of cancelled projects in Dubai
- Driven down by debt, Dubai expats give new meaning to long-stay car park


More posts on The Road about Dubai

Video discovered via MootBox. Picture courtesy Daveandmairi via A Picture's Worth

[i-American International School in Gaza]

[Ed: no comment]

More Pictures of the Day on The Road.
Picture courtesy AP

[i-gaza civilians - the victims]

United Nations Humanitarian Affairs Chief John Holmes blasted Hamas for its "cynical" use of civilian facilities during recent hostilities in the Gaza Strip.

"The reckless and cynical use of civilian installations by Hamas and indiscriminate firing of rockets against civilian populations are clear violations of international humanitarian law," Holmes told the UN Security Council. (Full)

[i-gaza civilians]
In two separate cases, Amnesty International accuses Israel of not respecting international conventions during the recent Gaza conflict:

Under the Geneva Conventions, medical personnel searching, collecting, transporting or treating the wounded should be protected and respected in all circumstances. Common Article 3 of the Conventions says that the wounded should be collected and cared for, including combatants who are hors de combat.

These provisions of international law have not been respected during the recent three-week conflict in the Gaza Strip. Emergency medical rescue workers, including doctors, paramedics and ambulance drivers, repeatedly came under fire from Israeli forces while they were carrying out their duties. At least seven were killed and more than 20 were injured while they were transporting or attempting to collect the wounded and the dead. (Full)

The Israeli army’s use of white phosphorus in densely populated civilian areas of Gaza has captured much of the world’s media interest. However, the Israeli forces also used a variety of other weapons against civilian residential built-up areas throughout the Gaza Strip in the three-week conflict that began on 27 December.

Among these are flechettes - tiny metal darts (4cm long, sharply pointed at the front and with four fins at the rear) that are packed into 120mm shells. (...)

Flechettes are an anti-personnel weapon designed to penetrate dense vegetation and to strike a large number of enemy soldiers. They should never be used in built-up civilian areas. (Full)

[i-destroyed school in gaza]

Normally when Britain's Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) launches an aid appeal, major television channels provide slots for short video ads, often fronted by celebrities, explaining the emergency and how the public can donate money.

In late November, for example, when the coalition of 13 British-based aid agencies asked for funds for their work in eastern Congo, the BBC backed the campaign, airing a two-and-a-half minute film presented by actress Juliet Stevenson.

But not this time: British broadcasters declined to run adverts for the DEC's latest appeal "to help ease the desperate plight of people affected by the conflict in Gaza".

A BBC spokesman said:

"Along with other broadcasters, the BBC has decided not to broadcast the DEC's public appeal to raise funds for Gaza. The BBC's decision was made because of question marks about the delivery of aid in a volatile situation, and also to avoid any risk of compromising public confidence in the BBC's impartiality in the context of an ongoing news story." (Full)

[i-living in Gaza]

Ben White wrote a provocative opinion piece in the Guardian, under the title "Israel wanted a humanitarian crisis:"

Targeting civilians was a deliberate part of this bid to humiliate Hamas and the Palestinians, and pulverise Gaza into chaos.(...)

First, to what this war on Gaza is not about: it's not about the rockets. During the truce last year, rocket fire from the Gaza Strip was reduced by 97%, with the few projectiles that were fired coming from non-Hamas groups opposed to the agreement. Despite this success in vastly improving the security of Israelis in the south, Israel did everything it could to undermine the calm, and provoke Hamas into a conflict.(...)

Estimates for the proportion of civilian deaths among the 1,360 Palestinians killed range from more than half to two-thirds. Politicians, diplomats and journalists are by and large shying away from the obvious, namely that Israel has been deliberately targeting Palestinian civilians and the very infrastructure of normal life, in order to – in the best colonial style – teach the natives a lesson. (Full)

[i-gaza]

UN humanitarian chief John Holmes has urged Israel to fully open all crossings with Gaza to allow a free flow of goods. (Full)

More Pictures of the Day on The Road.

Picture Getty Images

UN attacked in Gaza[i-UN attacked in Gaza]
Collateral damage is defined as: "Unintentional or incidental injury or damage to persons or objects that would not be lawful military targets in the circumstances ruling at the time. Such damage is not unlawful so long as it is not excessive in light of the overall military advantage anticipated from the attack."

Now look at this extract from the latest UN situation report in Gaza:

As of 12 January, there were five UNRWA [Ed: UN Relief and Works Agency] staff fatalities and three UNRWA contractor fatalities due to the fighting since 27 December.
There were also four UNRWA staff and four UNRWA contractors injured. One WFP [Ed: UN World Food Programme] contractor was killed and two others were injured.

At least 49 UN buildings have sustained damage during the fighting; one international NGO partner clinic has reportedly been destroyed; and several NGO compounds have been damaged. There have also been at least four incidents of aid convoys being hit by gunfire. (Full)

As a convoy of blue-and-white United Nations trucks loaded with food waited last night for Israeli permission to enter Gaza, Jindiya Abu Amra and her 12-year-old daughter went scrounging for the wild grass their family now lives on.

“We had one meal today - khobbeizeh,” said Abu Amra, 43, showing the leaves of a plant that grows along the streets of Gaza. “Every day, I wake up and start looking for wood and plastic to burn for fuel and I beg. When I find nothing, we eat this grass.”

Abu Amra and her unemployed husband have seven daughters and a son. Their tiny breeze-block house has had no furniture since they burnt the last cupboard for heat.

“I can’t remember seeing a fruit,” said Rabab, 12, who goes with her mother most mornings to scavenge. She is dressed in a tracksuit top and holed jeans, and her feet are bare.

I arrived in Israel yesterday to work with Mercy Corps, an international aid organization, to assist the Gazans who are suffering from the conflict and over 18 months of harsh blockades that have left their cupboards bare and their banks empty of cash. (...)

In 2007 an average of 500 trucks a day entered Gaza with food and supplies. In comparison, yesterday, just 36 humanitarian trucks were allowed access to Gaza. With almost the entire population of 1.5 million Gazans dependent on humanitarian assistance, it is obvious that the incoming aid is not even remotely adequate.

We have spent the past 11 days working through Israeli red tape and protocols that seemed to change daily, to secure the permission to deliver food aid. We have a truck filled with rice, cooking oil, canned tuna fish and edible dates that will feed 2,000 people for about a week.

Yesterday the delivery was supposed go through but at 2:00 a.m. we received notice from the Israeli authorities that the delivery was being postponed because it contained edible dates as part of the package.

Few are more exposed to the carnage of Israel's two-week military offensive than Gaza's medics, who number around 400 including volunteers. They work long hours, get little sleep and risk their lives daily. Many have lost friends and family, but the overwhelming workload leaves no time to process what they've seen.

Awaiting coordination with Israel often delays access to the injured, medics said. Some reported finding people stranded in their homes for days, or bodies lying in the streets uncollected.

"Disgusting is not the word," said Shawki Saleh, 24, a volunteer medic at Kamal Adwan hospital. "If it's not a dog, it's rats around the bodies. ... I've been doing this volunteer work for two years but I never imagined I'd see this. Who knows how many people are still under the rubble. We were carrying them out screaming."

In one long workday, medic Haitham Adgheir carried five corpses, saw six more at a Gaza hospital, and his medical convoy took Israeli tank fire that showered a driver with glass.

"My mind is like a video of body parts and injured people," said Adgheir, 33.

Gaza bombing[i-Gaza bombing]

Today Israel dropped bombs and leaflets on Gaza, pounding suspected rocket sites and tunnels used by Hamas militants and warning of a wider offensive despite frantic diplomacy to end the bloodshed. It is clear this conflict is nowhere near to the end (Full)

Rejecting Friday's UN Security Council resolution that called for an immediate and durable cease-fire, Israel and Hamas continued to fight. Israeli jets and troops attacked Hamas targets in Gaza, and Palestinian militants fired about 30 rockets into southern Israel. (Full)

Meanwhile, the international community is building up criticism on Israel's indiscriminate targeting of civilians and aid workers:

• ICRC (the International Committee of the Red Cross) stated Israel has violated its obligations under international humanitarian law by refusing to assist civilians wounded in its attacks on the Gaza Strip. In the Zaytun neighborhood of Gaza City, ICRC workers found four small children next to their dead mothers in one of the houses. They were too weak to stand up on their own. One man was also found alive, too weak to stand up. ICRC stated "The Israeli military must have been aware of the situation but did not assist the wounded." (Full)
• On December 30, several Israeli gunboats intercepted a ship with aid supplies, the SS Dignity, in international waters. The ship carried international medical aid workers and three tonnes of medical supplies. One Israeli gunboat is believed to have rammed the boat on the port bow side, heavily damaging her. (Full)
• On Friday night, an Israeli drone missile hit a car from the Norwegian People's Aid (NPA), an international NGO. NPA stated the car was clearly marked with the NPA logo, and that it was impossible not to recognize that this was a humanitarian vehicle. The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated the incident as a clear violation of international law. (Full)
• Earlier this week, an ambulance belonging to an Oxfam partner organisation was hit by an Israeli shell, killing one aidworker, and injuring two others. (Full)
• A CARE aidworker was killed on January 6th in an aerial bombing. Mohammed Ibrahim Samouni, a father of six, was killed and his son was critically injured. (Full)
• Also last week, an Israeli tank shelled a clearly marked UN school, leaving 43 Palestinians civilian dead and almost 150 injured. 1,600 people were taking shelter in the school, according to the UN, who confirmed there were only civilians in the school, which was clearly marked with a UN flag and its GPS location was duely reported to the Israeli authorities. (Full)
• Human Rights Watch accused Israel of using white-phosphorus munitions during its offensive in the Gaza Strip and warned of the risk to Palestinian civilians who live near the fighting. The use of white-phosphorus in densely populated areas of Gaza violates international humanitarian law (Full)
  
• On Thursday a aidworker was killed after a UN relief agency convoy came under fire from Israeli forces. The attack took place as the lorries travelled to the Erez border crossing to pick up supplies. The incident happened during an Israel approved three hour seize fire aimed at allowing humanitarian aid to move into Gaza. This eventually caused UNRWA, the main UN agency providing aid to the Palestinians, to suspend all food aid. (Full)
• Israeli forces shelled a house in which they had moved around 110 Palestinians into 24 hours earlier. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) called it "one of the gravest incidents" since the beginning of the offensive. 30 people were killed. (Full)
• Similar incidents were singled out by Navi Pillay, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. She called for independent investigations into possible war crimes committed by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip. "I am concerned with violations of international law. Incidents such as this must be investigated because they display elements of what could constitute war crimes," Pillay told the press. (Full)
• As many as 257 children have been killed and 1,080 wounded (a third of the total casualties since Dec. 27) according to U.N. figures released on Thursday. (Full)

gaza[i-gaza]

The Economist questions the proportionality of Israel's response to the Hamas rocket attacks:

In the arithmetic of death, the latest fight between Israel and Hamas has been an unequal contest: more than 350 Palestinians killed in Israeli air strikes in the first four days, many of them civilians, against four Israelis killed by Hamas’s rockets. But does such one-sided bloodshed make Israel guilty of using “disproportionate force”, as argued by, among others, Amnesty International and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, just ending his six-month presidency of the European Union?

Proportionality is intimately bound up with notions of the just war, and has been enshrined in treaties regulating warfare’s conduct since the Hague Convention of 1907. But familiar as it is, proportionality is a slippery idea. It has two different meanings in Western theory. On the grounds for going to war, jus ad bellum, the cause must be important enough to justify force; any good that will follow must outweigh the inevitable pain and destruction. In the conduct of war, jus in bello, any action must weigh the military gain against the likely harm to civilians. (Full)

"These tragic incidents need to be investigated, and if international humanitarian law has been contravened, those responsible must held accountable." (Full)

"This is, in our view, a humanitarian crisis. It's very hard for me to see any other way you could describe it, given the conditions in which the population are living." (Full)

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