EU Referendum

Showing posts with label Serbia. Show all posts

Tomislav_Nikolic[i-Tomislav_Nikolic]Well, some eyes on Serbia and not nearly as many as Serbia thinks or hopes. Next Sunday will see the parliamentary election and, in theory at least, the results will decide whether the country continues to look more or less to the West or turns inward again, isolating itself from its neighbours beyond the odd snarl across the border.

The threat the Serb nationalists issue from time to time is that if the EU continues to be nasty to Serbia, the country will turn eastward to Russia and China. On the whole, it is not clear what that might mean, especially when it comes to China. Will there be investments from that country? And if so, into what? That gas pipe that Russia has been negotiating has not been built yet and, in any case, its purpose is not to supply China but Europe.

Aid? Unlikely. That is not the way China does business, being considerably more hard-headed than the “selfish, capitalist” West that turns mushy when it comes to developing countries at whatever stage of development they are, playing on guilt feelings.

Russia is not going to help Serbia all that much. She did little in the eighties and will not start to get involved in Balkan politics too much now. Incoming President Medvedev may have a greater appetite for foreign adventure than outgoing President, soon to be Prime Minister, Putin but so far we have seen no evidence of that.

What Russia has done is to sign an agreement with President Tadic and Prime Minister Kostunica for the construction of part of the proposed South Stream pipeline. Russia is anxious to see that agreement be finalized, election or no election.

From a certain point of view, Serbia is important to Russia but, from the same point of view, so are Bulgaria, Italy, Austria and Hungary. In other words, Russia’s desire to consolidate her control over the supply of gas to Western Europe is what motivates that country and its biggest industrial conglomerate, Gazprom. (Incidentally, one wonders whether outgoing President Putin will become chairman of Gazprom, as it has been mooted.)

On Friday the International Herald Tribune carried an article about Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the Radical Party, generally described as far-right, though such terminology has little meaning outside Western Europe. The Trib also published an excellent picture of the “charismatic”, as they describe him, Mr Nikolic.

Mr Nikolic’s predecessor, as leader of the ultra-nationalist party (I think we can describe it as such) was Vojislav Seselj, until he turned himself in to the UN tribunal to face war crimes charges. There was a great deal of dissatisfaction among Mr Seselj’s supporters because of what was perceived to be undue pressure put on him by the Serbian government.

Mr Nikolic has ruled out the idea of war to regain Kosovo, a decision that has a good deal to do with the fact that Kosovo is under NATO’s protection and also with the other fact that there will be no military help from Russia, no matter what was said in the heat of the moment when Kosovo declared its de jure independence.

Kosovo has been a diplomatic failure for Russia (and, of course, for Serbia) in a completely unnecessary way. If the negotiations had been conducted slightly differently and if Serbia had been genuinely prepared to negotiate, this messy situation might not have occurred.

Actually, the most interesting comments by Mr Nikolic are about the late unlamented (except by a few supporters around the world) President Miloševič.

The problem with Milosevic, Nikolic says, is that he never finished what he started.

"All the wars Milosevic started, he gave up," Nikolic said. "His biggest mistake is that he was not a person who would take things to the end. I have the popularity that Milosevic had, and my votes come from some of the same people. But we got crazy from his politics. I can't be called another Milosevic."

There were very good reasons why those wars were not finished but fighting them well-nigh finished off the Serbian people. It is hard to understand what Mr Nikolic would have preferred.

Mr Nikolic, whose party is the largest in the parliament and who has an excellent chance of becoming a prime minister, having failed repeatedly in his attempts to become president, seems to be serving up a mixture of nationalism and social control, popular in many parts of post-Communist Eastern and South-East Europe, where moorings disappeared in the nineties.

At the same time he is insisting that Western investors and, above all Western aid-givers have nothing to fear. Serbia will not change under his government. She will co-operate with the Hague tribunal and will continue their efforts to join the European Union – a long-term project, despite the recently signed Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA).

The problem is that the United States and the European Union might cut their aid if Mr Nikolic is elected, though according to some commentators, Vojislav Kostunica will be more of a nuisance for Europe.

But while Serbian liberals portray Nikolic as a radical demagogue, some Western diplomats say he poses less of a threat to Western interests than does Vojislav Kostunica, the Serbian prime minister, who helped lead the revolution that overthrew Milosevic but has now adopted nationalist rhetoric.

"Kostunica is a 19th-century, anti-Western, romantic nationalist," said one senior Western diplomat, who was not authorized to comment publicly on the domestic politics of another country. "Mr. Nikolic is more pragmatic."

A fellow blogger, whose previous professional involvement means that he has forgotten more about the Balkans than I ever knew, told me that I should not underestimate the readiness of Serbs to be “different”. Perish the thought, I replied. How could one underestimate something like that?

The problem is that the EU cannot afford another member that is “different”. We already have Greece that is an ally often in name only but one that relies heavily on subsidies from the European Union.

The situation with the Balkan countries throws up once again the basic problem with that much vaunted common foreign policy – it has no idea what to do about the EU’s neighbours because it is not based on any common interest. All it can do is assimilate those neighbours as well as it can manage and all relations must revolve round the possibility of membership rather than agreements on various matters.

Having assimilated one lot the EU comes up against another set of neighbours and the same problems arise. Once again the only discussion is whether those countries can become members and if so how soon. If not, there is no real plan as to how to deal with them. This militates, for instance, against any such thing as a European policy towards Russia, though the member states, by and large have no individual policies either.

Entirely unsuitable countries become members of the EU, adding to the tensions within while the Commission, its officials and the budding external service struggles with ideas as to what to do with even less suitable countries that lie on the periphery.

link[i-link]It’s hard to tell how one should react to the various and variegated news from the Balkans. They could be treated as a big joke or as something created especially to try us all. Then again, many a European and world tragedy emerged from that difficult peninsula.

First things first. Serbia has signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union. The 27 foreign ministers, who met today decided that Serbia, too, should be placed on the road to possible, if somewhat distant membership of the European Union.

Boris Tadic, the president interpreted the whole process somewhat differently in the statement issued yesterday afternoon:

Today, I am proud to announce that Serbia has finally signed the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU. The Agreement sends a clear message: Serbia's future lies in Europe.

The message delivered today by EU Foreign Ministers was clear and unambiguous - they want Serbia to take its rightful place among them as a full and equal partner. There can no longer be any doubt about our shared commitment to make Serbia an integral part of a stronger and bigger EU.

For the citizens of Serbia the agreement will give greater freedom of travel, closer economic integration and removal of trade barriers, and most importantly the prospect of more employment. By signing the agreement today, we have reconfirmed our commitment to further reform and progress and prevented a path of economic isolation.

It pleases us particularly as we have delivered on this promise to the citizens of Serbia, ahead of the elections.

Now it is up to all citizens of Serbia to think carefully about the real long-term interests of our country and choose accordingly.

Well, of course, the man is fighting an election and the outcome is not at all clear. But this has always been the theme of the post-Communist countries – we want to be part of Europe. Sadly, the EU, incapable of seeing relations with neighbouring countries except in terms of them joining or not joining, never offers alternative agreements that would also make the "newcomers" feel as if they were part of Europe.

The only common foreign policy the EU can agree on with regards to neighbours (the most important aspect of one's foreign policy) is that of an amoeba: endlessly changing shape.

Meanwhile, the aspirant countries see possible membership as a kind of an El Dorado or Shangri-La – it will sort out their problems and give them lots of money to develop economically. Sadly, the reality is very different and the Serbs (and the Croats, the Bosnians, the Albanians) will find out, if, indeed, the EU lasts long enough for them to become members of it.

There are one or two other problems. Firstly, what happens if Tadic’s party loses the election to the more nationalistic groups and the question of Kosovo raises its head again. There is no evidence that it has been solved. Secondly, what is Russia, Serbia’s best friend (though not necessarily in need) going to say about all this?

The Serbs may be happy but neither the Greeks nor the Macedonians are. We have followed this convoluted saga on the blog. Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal carried an article by the Greek author and journalist, Takis Michas, which tried to explain the various problems that prevent the two countries from agreeing on any kind of a peaceful coexistence. They are not about to go to war but neither are they at peace.

It is about much more than just the name, the argument about which is something of a red herring. It is about that elusive Balkan entity – national identity, something that was supposed to disappear in the twenty-first century but, which, to the contrary, creates endless problems in countries, who spend a great deal of time re-writing and re-re-writing historic events and developments the better to define their identity.

Contrary to received wisdom, the dispute between Greece and Macedonia isn't over a mere name, but concerns competing national mythologies, symbols and histories. In other words, we have here all the usual Balkan issues over which people in this part of the world and elsewhere have butchered each other in the distant and not-so-distant past. No easy fix is possible, and a compromise over the name won't put to rest the basic conflict. Unless all the problems are addressed openly and honestly, mutual distrust will persist, ready to erupt again at the first opportunity – or once EU reconstruction funds dry up.

Had Athens and Skopje engaged in serious bilateral or multilateral talks during the past decade on all the points of contention, and not focused simply on the "name", perhaps they would not find themselves in their current, absurd predicament.

Then again, with EU reconstruction funds drying up, the two countries might be forced into some kind of accommodation with each other.

Vuk+Jeremic[i-Vuk+Jeremic]Most of us would agree that Serbia has not had a particularly good press in the last five to ten years in the West. Before that, of course, the European Union and most of the political establishment supported Slobodan’s Milosevic to keep that federation together. Some people have not quite recovered from that point of view but, by and large, any support has been tepid to lukewarm.

So I was not surprised when I heard that the Foreign Minister, Vuk Jeremic, was travelling to several countries in the EU, trying to present Serbia’s case to politicians and the media. In short, I assumed that this was going to be a charm offensive and was pleasantly surprised when I found out that he was very interested in speaking to bloggers in several countries.

The organizers of the visit suggested that I spend some time interviewing him on behalf of EUReferendum. Great, I thought, and prepared meticulously by reading all the stories as they came out meticulously and looking up Mr Jeremic’s biography. (And very interesting it is, too, particularly the comment about him coming from “a long lineage of Pozderac family considered one of the most influential political families in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the communist rule”.)

On the whole, Mr Jeremic has not distinguished himself by particularly adroit diplomacy, as we pointed out soon after Kosovo’s declaration of independence. Still, the man is young and wants to remain in his position, we must assume, after the May 11 election.

I was wrong. Mr Jeremic, though the Foreign Minister, seems to have only a very slight understanding of diplomacy. He met with foreign ministers and tried to persuade them to be nice to and about Serbia in their forthcoming Council meeting but diplomacy means a good deal more than just formal discussions.

Mr Jeremic was due to appear on Newsnight on Friday evening, to give interviews to the Financial Times, another BBC programme, EUReferendum and, possibly, one or two other outlets. The problem was that other stories intervened and Newsnight decided, possibly not very courteously, decided to devote the programme to the closure of the Grangemouth oil refinery and the looming strike.

One could argue that Newsnight does a little too much of this: both discarding potential interviewees and concentrating for too long on just one story. None of that is relevant. The thing to do at such a time is to double the charm offensive with the other outlets you have had an interview arranged with and say yah-boo to Newsnight.

Sadly, Mr Jeremic has all of this to learn and the way things are going in his country he may not get the chance. Instead of redoubling the charm offensive he flew into a rage and cancelled all interviews. All attempts to make him change his mind failed. A wasted opportunity to present Serbia’s point of view and to explain one or two matters, such as his reaction to the softening of the Dutch stance on Serbia and the EU signing an SAA.

Other questions from me would have been about his predictions for the May 11 election and, above all, his opinion on what Serbia would be getting out of its agreement with Russia.

The latest information we have is that Russia is beginning to bully Serbia already, demanding that the deal signed by President Tadic and Prime Minister Kostunica earlier this year be finalized, despite the fact that the present governments is merely a caretaker one.

Critics charge that the caretaker government has no authority to finalize the deal, under which Russia will allegedly acquire NIS for a fraction of its market value in repayment for its political support over Kosova. Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac, who belongs to Tadic's Democratic Party and is an outspoken critic of Kostunica, said on April 24 that he will block any attempts to finalize the deal before the May 11 Serbian general elections. He also wants the agreement renegotiated in any event. Kostunica argues that the deal is "too important" to be held up any longer. Several high-ranking Russian officials recently called on Serbia to ratify the agreement.

These are all important matters and the Serbian Foreign Minister’s job, if he is travelling at the Serbian people’s expense, is to try to get across his country’s point of view. Well, he has wasted his opportunity.

link[i-link]Kosovo’s declaration of independence last Sunday was the least surprising event of this year (though, naturally, there is plenty of time to go for more dog-bites-man-supermodel-takes-drugs stories in 2008). While I am not at all surprised that Serbia and Russia are going through the motions of rage and astonishment I find the silliness and ignorance of commentators in the West – for once, I think, the blogosphere is slightly worse than the MSM – perpetually odd.

When Hashim Thaci was elected to be Prime Minister of Kosovo last November he announced that he would declare his country to be independent as soon as possible after December 10, when the international mediators were supposed to report back to the UN on the progress of negotiations over Kosovo’s status.

The negotiations led nowhere and the UN continued to procrastinate. The election of Boris Tadic, supposedly pro-Western but really little different from his more nationalist rival, as Serbia’s President earlier this month speeded up events. Mr Tadic may want Serbia to be in the EU – promising the Serbs great prosperity through that move – but he, too, was against Kosovan independence. For that matter, no Serb politician at this time is interested in any arrangements with Kosovo apart from some kind of a return to the past, something that was clearly never going to happen. But then Yugoslavia was never going to be turned into Greater Serbia either but it took ten years of war, thousands of dead, tens of thousands displaced and severe economic hardship for the Serbs to accept that.

President Tadic, backed by the Russian government, has gone to the United Nations Security Council asking for the independence to be annulled and Serbia’s “territorial integrity” to be restored.Serbia has also recalled its ambassador from Washington and filed legal charges against Hashim Thaci and the Kosovan leadership in general. Other measures against countries that insist on recognizing Kosovo are being threatened.

The one thing that our readers were missing was a long posting from me on the subject of Kosovo, Serbia, the EU, Russia and related matters. Well, fear no more. It is up on EUReferendum 2 and you can read it. Be warned: it is very long.