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Showing posts with label Okhotsk Sea. Show all posts

It doesn't sound much. But this website is telling is that the ice pack which is created in the north of the Okhotsk Sea and then is blown down the coast of northern Sakhalin before reaching the Shiretoko coast in the north of Hokkaido, actually arrived in Japanese waters three days earlier than the annual average – on 29 January.

Despite the warmists and their troll friends on numerous websites trying to make out that the Okhotsk Sea ice pack was perfectly normal for this time of year, this source – which relies on data from the Japanese Ibuki satellite project (pictured: enlarged view here click pic when it has loaded) – is telling us that something abnormal was happening in the region.

Ice extent reports also have to be assessed in the context of strident complaints about the decline in the icepack, which was first observed in 1989. Since then, we are told, it "has never recovered to its former levels" – except perhaps now, when it is above average for the time of year.

Certainly, while reports of two-metre ice thickness were being made, scientific modelling in the Sakhalin area seems to suggests that mean maximum annual ice thickness is in the order of 108 cm, of which 70 cm is "congelation ice" and 38 cm is snow–ice, formed later in the season when the heaviest snowfalls are experienced.

As the inquiry into the cause of the Okhotsk Sea crisis now begins to get underway, there must be some explanation for why apparently experienced skippers of major vessels allowed themselves to become trapped in the ice. Having become used to the pack coming late in the Gulf of Sakhalin, where the ships were stranded, the skippers may have been caught out by the ice arriving unusually earlier, or being much thicker than expected.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

She is out of the ice, we are told, ending the month-long operation in the Sea of Okhotsk. "The operation to rescue the Sodruzhestvo mother ship out of ice trap has been completed," Russia's Ministry of Transport said in a statement today.

A month after the ships were first reported as trapped in the ice – and after a day with no news on the Okhotsk Sea crisis - we earlier received a cautiously optimistic report from Voice of Russia that suggested that the last vessel, the factory ship Sodruzhestvo, was on its way out of the ice.

The report spoke of the icebreakers Admiral Makarov and the Krasin having led the 32,000-ton giant through "another ten miles of thick ice" and of the convoy "moving to clear waters". Only the Voice of Russia seemed to be reporting this, however, and even it was hedging its bets by saying that "experts" are predicting that the ships will break clear, rather than making direct assertions.

Interestingly, we are beginning to learn quite how exceptional this incident has been. The most recent episode that is anything like it happened last year when two identical 104-ton fishing vessels were trapped in the ice. This was in the Terpeniya bay off the southeastern coast of Sakhalin, though, and the stranding happened later in the season, on 11 January. On 19 January, a Mi-8 rescue helicopter evacuated 14 sailors and the boats were temporarily abandoned.

This was at a time when exceptionally cold conditions were being reported, and temperatures were dropping as low as minus -38°C during the nights. Later, an icebreaker was called in, which towed the vessels to Korsakov in southern Sakhalin, normally an ice-free port and a centre of the sea fishery.

There was also an incident reported on 22 January 2008, when emergency crews evacuated nine of the 14 sailors on board four ships which got trapped in ice in the Sea of Okhotsk on 18 January.

The four ships – a survey cutter, a fishing seiner and two barges attached to the vessels – had been heading for winter anchorage at the settlement of Adzhan, Khabarovsk region, but became stuck in the ice. The vessels were found 100 kilometers off the region’s coast the next day by an AN-74 aircraft and the rescued people were taken by Mi-8 helicopter to the town of Nikolayevsk-on-Amur.


Before that, it seems we must go back to 1965 when, according to one report, five Soviet ships were trapped by ice in the same region. Without icebreakers available, this report says, boats with their crews had to wait until June to be released. However, a contemporary report seems to suggest that the ships were accompanied by the icebreaker Lavarev (pictured - the name could be incorrect - it might be Lazarev), yet were still unable to break free.

There is also a report of 26 March 1952 in the New York Times (paywall) of a giant ice floe trapping a large Japanese fishing vessel and a rescue ship off northern Hokkaido within sight of Russian held Sakhalin Island.

To find another comparable incident, we have to go back to 27 December 1935 when the 2,000-ton freight and passenger vessel Lozovski was trapped in ice en route to Vladivostok, with ice pressure threatening to crush the hull.

Some passengers made the hazardous eight-mile trek to shore – although one passenger and a crewman disappeared - while others set up tents on the ice to await rescue. In a neat bit of historical symmetry, the icebreaker Krasin – the predecessor to the current ship – was sent to the rescue and itself was trapped 30 miles from the Lozovski. Both ships had run out of coal and were reported to be relying on oil stoves for heating.

At the time of the report, the rescue ship Uritski had been despatched from Valdivostok with fresh supplies, and was planning to use dynamite to make a breach through the ice to rescue the trapped ships. Now, more than 75 years later, the second icebreaker bearing the name Krasin has finally pulled off a feat, the like of which its predecessor had failed to do.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

Russian icebreakers Krasin and the Admiral Makarov, engaged in the Okhotsk Sea rescuing the ice-trapped factory ship Sodruzhestvo, have now cleared the most difficult stretch of ice, covering eight nautical miles over the past 36 hours.

We are told that the ships still have 25 miles before they reach open sea but, from all accounts, the worst is over. We are nonetheless reminded that the Sodruzhestvo (pictured) has been the hardest of the trapped ships to tow due to its wide body. The icebreakers have to coordinate their efforts to clear a wide channel in thick ice for the vessel to finally reach open waters.

TASS is reporting that the success raises hopes that the month-long rescue operation could end in two more days. The convoy will soon reach the area of drifting ice. After that thirty miles will remain to clear water. "The voyage is likely to take another two days and the rescue operation may end on January 30," Far Eastern Shipping Company spokeswoman Tatyana Kulikova says.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

According to the Voice of Russia, in the last 24 hours, the ice trapped Sodruzhestvo factory ship has made a mere 300 meters in the past 24 hours - not even twice its own length. Aided by the Admiral Makarov and the Krasin, Ria Novosti confirms that the convoy has only covered 1.8 miles "in heavy ice floe" since the start of what was hoped to be the final phase of the rescue in the Okhotsk Sea crisis.

"The convoy is moving very slowly due to breaking towing cables and constant shifting of heavy ice floe," says the spokeswoman for the factory ship owners, Tatyana Kulikova. "The ships have managed to cover only 1.8 miles since Wednesday, and have about 20 miles to go till they reach clear waters," she added. The Krasin is towing the Sodruzhestvo, while the Admiral Makarov is leading the convoy, attempting to clear a passable channel in the thick ice.


Since the beginning of the current operation on Wednesday morning, the rescue operation has been suspended twice because of the breakage of towing cables. Yesterday we learned that a replacement cable had been brought by helicopter. Now, that cable seems to have broken. This is the third time a breakage has been reported.

Looking at the sheer bulk of the Sodruzhestvo (pictured top), it is not at all surprising that problems are being experienced. But with it having spent over four weeks trapped in the ice, the 348 crew must be wondering whether their ship will ever again see the open sea. Still, as one of our readers observes, as long as they have this, they won't get bored.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

The silence from yesterday in the Okhotsk Sea crisis is now explained from the latest report, which tells us that the rescue of the Sodruzhestvo factory ship had been suspended once again. In a re-run of an earlier drama exactly two weeks ago, the tow rope snapped as the ship was being dragged through the ice.

With the icebreakers Krasin (pictured below from 2006) towing the giant factory ship and the Admiral Makarov clearing the channel ahead, the ships only managed to break though "one and a half miles of thick ice" before the tow was lost again. We are told, however, that "spare towropes were delivered by a helicopter" and that the operation has been resumed. Make of that what you will.


This is now the 27th day the Sodruzhestvo has spent locked in the ice. And, although the Russians have been fairly candid about the difficulties involved in extracting her, the continued delays must be trying patience. There are 40 miles to go to the ice edge (although Russian miles tend to be rather elastic) and the ships were last reported in "a complicated area of dense ice".

Thus, there is still no immediate end in sight to this drama. The authorities are only committing to "several days" before the ships are in the clear, and experience tells us anything could happen.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

As the Sodruzhestvo (pictured above – ship on right) enters its 26th day of captivity in the ice of the Okhotsk Sea, the agency TASS was confidently reporting that she will be freed today. That news was posted early this morning, Moscow time and there are quite often updates issued. And, in the early evening here (England), it is in the early hours Wednesday in the rescue area, and all we are getting is an ominous silence.

We had been told from diverse sources that the icebreakers Krasin and Admiral Makarov would begin to pilot the factory ship from the ice. The Krasin was first into the ice after refuelling, and had forced its way to the factory ship. The Admiral Makarov was following, making the escape channel wider.

The two icebreakers were then to operate in tandem, leading the Sodruzhestvo to ice-free water for about 50 miles across heavy hummocky ice. The weather conditions were said to be favourable and the last we had heard was that the Krasin had been clearing the Sodruzhestvo from ice and preparing a channel for towing.

Meanwhile, as this drama plays out, US Rear Admiral Dave Titley, at an Arctic conference in Tromsø, Norway, is telling us that commercial ships could be sailing across an ice-free North Pole as soon as 2035.

Titley predicted that, as the ice-free period gradually increased, the Bering Strait between the US and Russia would begin to rival the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia as one of the world's most important shipping lanes.

This, no doubt, will come as music to the ears the crew of the Sodruzhestvo, who might also be entertained by the total lack of Western media coverage. The only news from that source, coming out of the region concerns a "rare whale" which has left the Bering Sea and is heading for the Gulf of Alaska.

Researchers have been tracking the whale since they tagged it off Russia's Sakhalin Island on 4 October, and the media is showing far more interest in this solitary mammal than it is the fate of over 400 trapped crew.  It would be nice to think that the Japanese had a whaler handy to do a bit of quick "research", which could then grace the plates of Tokyo diners.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

Events in the Okhotsk Sea crisis are moving apace, with TASS reporting that the Bereg Nadezhdy fish carrier "has been led by two icebreakers from the ice area to clear water." Now the Admiral Makarov and Krasin icebreakers are returning to the Sodruzhestvo factory ship "in order to guide the vessel to ice-free waters."

This looks quite promising. An earlier bulletin set the scene, telling us that the icebreakers were leading the fish carrier to "ice-free waters" and had covered 12 of the 38 miles to the ice edge, over the past 24 hours. Then Ria Novosti issued a bullish report relaying an announcement from a spokesman for Russia's Federal Fishing Agency.


Said Alexander Savelev, the Bereg Nadezhdy had been successfully towed to clear water. "The refrigerator vessel is out of danger," he said. "In the next few hours, after refuelling, the icebreakers will return for the Sodruzhestvo mother fishery ship."

He added that the weather conditions were favourable for the rescue operation, with temperatures of -14°C. "The crew is alive and healthy, although during the operation a sailor had to be evacuated from one of the icebreakers with suspected appendicitis," Savelev also said.

In the early afternoon here (in England at the time of writing), it is close to midnight in the Okhotsk Sea, and operations no doubt will be scaling down. In the morning it is hoped that we will be seeing the final, final stage of the rescue, that has already seen its fair share of false dawns.

What is interesting though is that, throughout the operation, diverse spokespersons have been stressing that the ships were in no danger. With Alexander Savelev now telling us that the Bereg Nadezhdy is "out of danger," we can only draw our own conclusions as to the veracity of the previous statements.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

On the back of "abnormal weather " we now have a further development in the Okhotsk Sea crisis with TASS reporting "unusually strong" ice pressure. This actually comes as no surprise at all, as the wind direction and strength over the last few days has combined to create possibly the worst conditions that can be encountered.

As a result, the convoy comprising the Admiral Makarov and the Krassin icebreakers, attempting to lead out the Bereg Nadezhdy fish carrier and the Sodruzhestvo factory ship, has not moved a single mile forwards since Saturday morning. It is still stuck at a distance about 30 miles away from the areas of open floating ice, exactly where it was yesterday.

The plan devised for the rescue operation has not changed, and is now being described as "multi-stage and complicated", with the Makarov and Krassin attempting first to free the fish carrier from the ice, after which the intention is to return for the Sodruzhestvo with its 348 crew members.

Waiting at the edge of the ice are the icebreaker Magadan and the tanker Viktoria. The latter will have to refuel the two icebreakers before they start back into the ice, but it looks to be a long wait. The trapped ships have entered their fourth week of confinement, some two weeks after premier Putin suggested they might have been freed.

Suggestions are now emerging that initial efforts to free the ships were delayed because all of the icebreakers in Russia's Pacific fleet had been leased out to the oil and gas company Exxon until 2016.

A rescue operation was initiated only after the Kremlin had intervened and guaranteed payment to the appropriate parties, by which time several days had passed. Putin must now hope for a successful ending to this crisis, as loss of the ships and any men may raise uncomfortable questions about the lack of preparedness in the region.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

The long-running Okhotsk Sea crisis is turning into a marathon soap opera, with the latest instalment from TASS today. As expected, the storm has slackened and the snow abated, but apparently this is only a temporary break. The snow is expected back tomorrow, although the force of the depression which has dominated the region is gradually subsiding.

With that seems to come yet another plan change – or perhaps a reversion to the original plan. We are told that the two icebreakers now intend to lead the Bereg Nadezhdy ("Coast of Hope") fish carrier into clear water. Once there, they will refuel from the tanker Victoria and return, once again, in a bid to pull the Sodruzhestvo factory ship from the ice.

This time, TASS is telling us that the ships have about 30 miles ahead to reach the clear water. Estimates of distance, though, have varied wildly throughout this crisis. Figures of up to 100 miles have been mentioned. And nor is the location of the ice edge static, nor even clearly defined as the wind-driven floes continue to accumulate. It should be remembered that April is the peak month for ice extent.

Further, immediately prior to the last storm, the convoy had only made two miles in a single 24 hour period, so distance gives no indication whatsoever as to when the ships might be freed, if ever. However, as they say, "hope springs eternal" or, in this case, hope springs the "Coast of Hope" – we hope.

Meanwhile, the rest of the media, bizarrely, continue to ignore the drama, with the attention remaining on the assumed – but far from proven – adverse effect of Russian oil and gas exploitation in the Okhotsk Sea on the supposedly dwindling population of grey whales.

Latest recruit to this cause is The Tehran Times, which has copied out a Reuters report, based on a WWF press effort. Interestingly, the copy bears remarkable similarities to an earlier report by Geoffrey Lean, the Daily Telegraph's environment editor. So it is that the media are entirely indifferent to the great drama being played out in real life, preferring instead to promote the fears, real or imagined, of a conservation NGO.

But then, after the greens have so assiduously promoted the loss of drift ice in the Okhotsk Sea as evidence of global warming, the last thing they, or a warmist-biased media, would want to do is highlight a rescue drama that features abnormally severe weather conditions and a rapidly expanding ice pack.  Instead, there seems a determination amongst the warmist to downplay the drama - "move on, nothing to see here," seems to be their anxious refrain.

There is also an element here of the anti-human bias. The fate of the whales is important to these people. The potential loss of hundreds of people, on a much more immediate timescale, is of no interest. That prospect, to some, is even welcome.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

It would appear that the Russian are developing the same taste for understatement as the British (although we seem to be forgetting the art), in reporting "bad weather" on the island of Sakhalin.

High winds and blizzard conditions, brought by a deep depression to the southeast (synoptic chart pictured – see bottom right quadrant), have disrupted the ferry service linking the island with the mainland and closed roads in the north of the island. Visibility in snowstorms is down to less than 200 feet and in the Tatar Strait between Sakhalin and the mainland, where ice-free water remains, wave heights are over 12 feet.

The particular relevance of this, of course, is that this is the same region where the two Russian ships and their icebreaker escorts are trapped, in the Okhotsk Sea, where yesterday, we reported that rescue attempts had been temporarily abandoned.

This is the most recent intimation of just quite how bad conditions are but, from observation of the chart, the wind patterns and strength are now creating the worst conditions imaginable for the trapped ships.

The problem arises from the peculiar geography of the Okhotsk Sea, with its shallow continental shelf along the northwestern coastal area. Because the sea is shallow, the water temperature can quickly cool down to freezing, allowing ice to form. With a constant offshore wind, the ice is carried away offshore continuously. Therefore, the waters tend to be always open adjacent to that part of the coast.

This open water is called a polynia, where ice is constantly produced, turning the area into what amounts to an ice factory, the total production of which is sufficient to cover the entire Okhotsk Sea. With the wind now from the northeast, the loose ice is being driven into Sakhalin Bay, where the ships are trapped, adding significantly to the ice depth and extent.

Under pressure from wind and currents, the ice driven into the bay tends to lift and buckle, forming pressure ridges and hummocks, some to as much as 20 feet depth or more. And that is what is happening right now. By the time the current storm has abated, the ice may be so thick and dense that the trapped ships cannot be extracted.


Meanwhile, the media has suddenly woken up to the Okhotsk Sea, but not to the ongoing drama. Apparently prompted by the WWF, they are recording concerns that Russian plans, in partnership with BP, to exploit oil and gas reserves in the region (above) might adversely affect a small population of rare Grey Whales.

In the manner of the anti-human greens, like Geoffrey Lean in his current blog, they are entirely oblivious to the current drama. While they are happy to emote about whales, human beings at risk are of no consequence.


Tourism meltdown, Climate change causes drift ice lost from UNUChannel on Vimeo.

Perversely, it is global warming which is improving the exploitation potential or the region, supposedly causing the reduction of the "poster-child drift ice" (pictured above) - about which the greenies were complaining in 2008 and again in 2009, with an additional interview here. But, if the run of bad weather becomes a trend, exploitation of the region might be far more difficult.


Sunset view from Notsuke nature center in Betsukai, Hokkaido on 8th, Jan 2011 from motohiro SUNOUCHI on Vimeo.

Then, at least, the greenies are getting some ice back (pictured 8 January this year), even if the people of Sakhalin and sailors trapped in the Okhotsk Sea are not wholly appreciative. When you think about it, for the greenies, global cooling in the region is a "win-win". They might even get rid of a few hundred humans. What's there not to like?

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

[Loband: Object Removed -]

Breaking news as of 16:30 GMT was that the rescue operation in the Okhotsk Sea had been suspended "as weather conditions have deteriorated".

What was hoped to be the final phase of the operation to extract the trapped shipped was started at 21:30 Moscow time on Wednesday. "However, the deterioration of weather conditions (a cyclone is hovering over Sakhalin, and there is no transport connection) has suspended the active phase of the operation to get the ships out of ice," a source said. "Abnormally bad weather is characterized by zero visibility, strengthening winds and ice compression."

Earlier, we had learned that the rescue was continuing. With all the delays though, the icebreakers and the trapped ships have spent so long in the ice field that it had grown massively bigger – and thicker – and they were still trapped, making minimal progress.

Voice of Russia was telling us that, as of "this morning", i.e., when their piece was being written, the Krasin and Admiral Makarov had managed to escort the Bereg Nadezhdy only two miles. After that, it said, the icebreakers would return for the Sodruzhestvo, "that was left in a relatively safe zone earlier". "It is still unclear how long the whole operation will take," the agency was saying. That was very much a change of tone.

In an earlier report from TASS, however, we got the complete opposite. We have the two icebreakers piloting not the Bereg Nadezhdy but the Sodruzhestvo. I don't think they're wrong, or lying or anything like that, but there was a certainly a contradiction.

What I think might have been happening is that they running a sort of shuttle service, dragging one ship a few miles, parking it in relatively safe ice and then going back for the other one. Once the two ships are reunited, they then repeat the process all over again.


This has to be extremely fraught as the ice is clearly building up faster than they can break thought it. The reality is that they are deeper into the ice now that when the ships were first trapped on 31 December, now three weeks ago. And now, it seems, they are temporarily defeated, as the weather worsens.

Amongst all this, there is a confused story about a previous stop, triggered by a high ice pressure and repairs. I am not exactly certain, but I think this was the Bereg Nadezhdy, although there seems to be some ambiguity in the reports. Maybe it's just me. The reference to convoy movement being suspended on Tuesday "over a high ice pressure and high winds," confirms what we were reporting earlier.

As for photos, there is nothing new coming out of the system, but AP has done a video report and we've put it up (top). This is a composite, with what appears to be new and old pictures, but in fleeting glimpses, we get an idea of quite how bad it is there.

We also see for the first time the Sodruzhestvo under tow. From the angle it is difficult to see, but she looks to be close-coupled. I wasn't sure they could do that with such a big ship, but they do seem to be doing it. I’ve taken out a screen grab, cleaned it up and posted it (above). Quality is not very good, but at least you can see it for yourself.

Under current conditions, it is unlikely that we'll see much more in the way of new photographs for a while. There is a fight for survival going on out there. As always, I'll keep you posted.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

I was not expecting to be writing about the Okhotsk Sea today, but in yesterday's account there were warnings that the crisis was not quite over. And indeed that is the case, with Voice of Russia observing that the rescue operation "will not be over today". Conditions appear to have deteriorated sharply and, last night, the four-ship convoy covered "no more than three miles". A helicopter is out reconnoitring the ice situation today.

Once again, we are left to piece together the story from diverse sources (with no input from the Western media). From TASS we learn the intriguing detail that the Bereg Nadezhdy fish carrier needed refuelling, an operation that appears to have been completed. She now "stays on the ice waiting for her turn for the pilotage", we are told. We also get an idea of the weather, said to be "favourable" with the wind about 20 miles per hour and the air temperature at -10°C.

But there is also the detail, then added, that "further movement is impossible due to the engine malfunction on the Bereg Nadezhdy ship and the lack of fuel".

It is then to Ria Novosti that we turn, finding that strong winds and heavy ice floe in the area are making difficulties. Weather conditions in the area are normal, but strong winds are "causing quick shifting and thickening of ice floe", which has "seriously hampered" the rescue efforts. This seems to be the 1983 shipping crisis all over again, when wind-driven ice-floes also thickened suddenly, causing ice to close round the ships, too fast for them to escape.

There is this still no indication when the ships will be totally in the clear, and you get some hint also that this is creating political stresses, with a report that Putin has "serious problems" in controlling his self-serving bureaucratic machine. He "may pretend to be in charge of the rescue operation in the Sea of Okhotsk," the report says, "but in fact it is directed through the bargaining between the company owning the fishing fleet and the company that owns the ice-breakers."

Oblivious to all this then comes Roger Howard in The Daily Telegraph telling us that "regional sea ice is retreating fast, threatening to raise global sea levels, destroy traditional habitats and ways of life, and accelerate the rate at which the planet as a whole is warming up".

Notwithstanding the flash of scientific illiteracy (since when does melting sea ice raise sea levels, global or otherwise?), the sailors trapped in the Okhotsk Sea would be surprised to learn that "regional sea ice is retreating fast." While Howard points to the "silver lining" to come out of global warming, causing an ice retreat which allows exploitation of oil, gas and mineral reserves, this current crisis underlines the fickle nature of the ice.

There are very great dangers in working in this region, as today's events demonstrate. Nature still has the capacity to surprise.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

Here we have it again, this curious "dance" by the Russian icebreakers, which we observed yesterday. This time, the picture (above) accompanies the news that the Krasin and the Admiral Makarov have managed now to extract both the Sodruzhestvo factory ship and the Bereg Nadezhdy fish carrier out of thick ice in the Okhotsk Sea.

With a little more detail given, we learn that the icebreakers first towed the bigger factory ship to a safer area, and then returned for the Bereg Nadezdy, which they took to thinner ice. The report acknowledges a change of plan but it looks as if, in the final stages, the two ships were escorted out together.

The drama is not entirely over though. TASS reports that the ships have got through the "hardest 10 miles" with the highest ice pressure. The convoy will keep sailing northward to a safe area in the Okhotsk Sea, which "may take another few days".


Led by the Krasin, there is an unintended irony here. The ship is named after Leonid Krasin, the Russian Kommisar who is credited with devising the refrigeration system which preserved Lenin's body. Having put his body in ice, so to speak, this icebreaker, the second to bear the name, is dedicated to getting bodies out of the ice, in a manner of speaking, which it has done so spectacularly this time.

With the crisis having started on 31 December, it has now taken 18 days to get these ships released, and mighty relieved they must be. Weather continues to deteriorate as global warming takes its malign grip of the region, with 50 mph winds and temperatures currently down to -20°C. Think how terrible it might have been had the world actually been cooling.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

After what appeared to be a close-down on publicity, the Okhotsk Sea crisis moves into its final phase with what the Russians are claiming is the successful extraction of the Sodruzhestvo from the ice and her return to open waters. We also learn that the fish carrier Bereg Nadezhdy is still in the ice but is now being towed by the Krasin and the Admiral Makarov.

This seems to have been a change of plan. It was originally intended that the two trapped ships, having been re-united, would then be escorted out of the ice in a single convoy. Some clue of the plan change came earlier today when the Russian Transport Ministry states that an operation had started "early on Sunday" to free the Bereg Nadezdy.

On instructions from the rescue coordination headquarters in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, we are told, the icebreakers approached the trapped Bereg Nadezhdy at 05:00 am Moscow time, when it was five miles to the south of the Sodruzhestvo, and started preparing to tow it.


"At 09:25 am Moscow time, the icebreakers started towing the refrigerator ship towards the Sodruzhestvo mother fishery ship," the press office said. But even then, it was telling us that the icebreakers intended then to move the ships together, toward clear waters in a single-file convoy.

At some stage, though, they must have decided  that taking two ships out at the same time was beyond the capability of the breakers. Thus it became a matter of one at a time, this time taking the bigger ship out first. It would be nice to have some detail as to how this was achieved, but for the moment we can only surmise.

However, the nose-to-nose formation (pictured above) might give some clue.  As we saw earlier, what may have happened was that the Krasin goes ahead and clears a channel while the Makarov tows more slowly (seen here with the Bereg Nadezhdy). Once the channel is clear for a stretch, the Krasin returns and they both "work" the channel to get the ship through.

Whatever way it was done, they got the big beast out - a testament to the skills and seamanship of the Russians. The adventure is all but over.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

Spin it any which way you like, the ships involved in the Okhotsk Sea crisis are in serious trouble. From just one source, Ria Novosti, we get the news that the Krasin and the Admiral Makarov (pictured together) are continuing with their attempt to lead the Sodruzhestvo out of the ice. But what comes over, though, is how painfully (and dangerously) slow this has become.

Towing actually started on Wednesday afternoon and, despite optimistic forecasts, soon ground to a halt when towing ropes snapped. And, although the extraction resumed on Thursday morning, since the very start of the operation the two icebreakers and the factory ship have only covered 17 miles.

They now have another eight miles to reach the Bereg Nadezdy fish carrier, which had earlier been "parked" in what was then looser ice, pending extraction from the ice field.

But such have been the delays that, in the sub-zero temperatures which have dropped to -27°C at time, the ice field has extended and thickened, and it will be now a best part of 100 miles before the ships reach clear water. And in between, there is "a very difficult stretch of ice floe", according to the fisheries company spokeswoman, Tatyana Kulikova.

Once the Sodruzhestvo is reunited with the Bereg Nadezdy, the plan is for the icebreakers continue towing the factory ship, while the fish carrier will attempt to sail on its own along the channel cut in the ice by Admiral Makarov and Krasin.


This is not much of a plan, considering that, to get her this far, the Makarov had to resort to a close-coupled tow to extract the Bereg Nadezdy (pictured above). But, given the resources available, they really do not have much option. With the added complication of the Makarov being short of fuel and weather conditions in the area deteriorating rapidly, it is no exaggeration to say that this rescue attempt is in serious trouble.

On the plus side, the Russians are enormously skilled and experienced in ice navigation, and there seem to be enough helicopter assets in the area to effect an evacuation if need be, so the continued protestations that no lives are at risk is probably true. But whether either of the two commercial ships will ever get clear of the ice remains to be seen.

UPDATE: As of 10:30 am Moscow time, TASS reports that the convoy comprising the Admiral Makarov, the Krasin and the Sodruzhestvo has been reunited with the "drifting" Bereg Nadezhdy.

The Admiral Makarov cleared a two-mile strip in the afternoon and returned to the convoy. Now, the coordinating staff led by deputy transport minister Viktor Olersky is "analysing weather and ice conditions for elaborating the tactics of the further operation." With bad weather forecast for a week, no estimate has been given for when the ships will break completely free of the ice.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

The rescue operation in the Okhotsk Sea has now been resumed, but it was set back more than was at first admitted yesterday when the towing cables broke. As we now learn, the towing equipment was damaged as well. But, with little more detail, almost like the old days when the TV shut down every night and all you got was the station card, all the Russian media is offering are stock photographs of the Okhotsk Sea (above).

In fact, confusion abounds. We are now told that the Sodruzhestvo has to be towed 100 miles before it can be united with the Bereg Nadezhdy, a journey which, according to Voice of Russia "may take a total of 12 hours". That distance surely has to be wrong – unless the Bereg Nadezhdy has also moved – in which case the idea of towing the Sodruzhestvo a 100 miles (nautical or otherwise – there is also a confusion of units) in a mere 12 hours is absurdly optimistic.

If this was being carried out in Western waters, with – say – a tourist ship involved, there would by now be wall-to-wall coverage as the drama intensified and the weather forecast offered a deteriorating situation. But because those at risk are Russian and a long way away, this is all you get.

Having been fed one optimistic, unrealistic bulletin after the other, Moscow listeners must feel they are back in the "good old days" of the Soviet Union. But this time it seems as much the incompetence of the media as anything else, as the standard of reporting has been dire. But, there you go. Sodruzhestvo may be on her way out. She may not. Who knows? One thing is for sure though, the Western media doesn't really care.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

Further to our report earlier today, the Voice of Russia tells us that the Krasin and Admiral Makarov have failed to tow the ice-trapped Sodruzhestvo out of thick ice at first go today. According to Fishery Minister Andrei Krainy, the tow ropes broke, so the rescue effort will have to be repeated.

Why are we not surprised?

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

Yesterday, the Russians were talking about the rescue operation moving into the final, crucial stage, as the combined force of the two biggest icebreakers in the region moved in to try to extract the 32,000-ton Sodruzhestvo (pictured) from ice captivity in the Okhotsk Sea.

The latest report informs us that the icebreakers Krasin and the Admiral Makarov have in fact reached the Sodruzhestvo, now confirmed with 348 crew members on board, and have started to lead her out to free waters. The route has been carefully planned, after extensive reconnaissance by helicopter. The pressure is on for a number of reasons, not least because meteorologists are predicting that the weather will worsen sharply in the next two days. Winds are expected to strengthen and visibility to drop.

Significantly, the ice shelf - which was only about 15 miles deep at the start of the crisis – is now about 100 nautical miles. Distances to safety, therefore, have dramatically increased as the ice field spreads northwards. But, more worryingly, in this shallow part of the sea, the icebreakers are finding that the ice has hit bottom.


Having yesterday "parked" the fish carrier Bereg Nadezhdy (pictured above), with 35 crew on board, the two icebreakers covered 25 nautical miles in 24 hours to reach the Sodruzhestvo, breaking through three big floes in the process. Later, when the two ships are re-united, it is planned to lead them to safety in a single-file convoy of four vessels.

Russia Today talks of temperatures having dropped to -27°C and of a ferocious northerly wind, which is driving the ice into the southern part of the Okhotsk Sea, to the Sakhalin Bay area, where the ships are trapped. Higher winds in particular will intensify the difficulties. Awaiting the ships at the ice edge, we are told is the Magadan icebreaker and a tanker, ready to refuel the Makarov, which is said to be low on fuel.

Meanwhile, as this little local difficulty is sorted out, WUWT reports that nearly 70 percent of the United States is snow covered (and almost all of Canada), with New York City declaring a "snow emergency". The "big freeze" also continues in India and China, in the latter causing considerable crop losses. But nothing of this contradicts the claim by the British Met Office's Julia Slingo that the world is getting warmer. These are all local events.


UPDATES: TASS is reporting that the operation to "pilot" the Sodruzhestvo to a loose ice area has started. But, says Tatyana Kulikova, head of the press centre of the Far Eastern sea shipping company, "The operation is proceeding with difficulty: the factory ship has large dimensions: 180 metres long and 20 metres high. It is very difficult to take it in tow."

The procedure described is that the Admiral Makarov "is busy breaking up ice to trench a channel while the higher-powered icebreaker Krasin will pilot the factory ship through it." That is a bit odd, as the two icebreakers are described as sister ships, with identical performance specifications. Meanwhile, the remarkable photograph shows what appears to be a double tow – the two icebreakers together leading out the Bereg Nadezhdy.

Ria Novosti is suggesting that the Sodruzhestvo can be extracted within 12 hours, the Krasin leading it out on "an anchor tow" (i.e., close, but not close-coupled). The vessels are said to have about 12 miles to go before they get to free water, including around three miles of the most treacherous ice. The operation is expected to be completed by Thursday afternoon (presumably Moscow time).

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

It is now Tuesday evening in the Okhotsk Sea area, well after the time when the crisis should have been over and all the ships extracted. Instead, the news is virtually the same as it was yesterday .

The Krasin (pictured) and the Admiral Makarov are still attempting to lead the Bereg Nadezhdy fish carrier out of the ice, the sole difference being that they are reported to be half way to freedom. Monitored by an Emergencies Ministry helicopter – which suggests, at least, that the storm conditions might have abated - this is painfully slow progress. But it is at least progress, if we are to believe what we are told.

The Western media are largely ignoring the operation, the latest being a barely informative report from the UPI agency, giving no hint of the underlying drama.

Should the Bereg Nadezhdy be safely extracted – and neither the Russian authorities nor their media now seem keen to speculated when - it will have taken the combined efforts of the region's two largest icebreakers to get a 13,000-ton ship to safety. (The largest, nuclear icebreakers, are of course, over in the West, their precise whereabouts unknown to us.)

The icebreakers on station will then have to plough back into the ice, which at this time of year – and at the prevailing temperatures, as low as -23°C - is expanding faster than a man can walk. They then have to pull out a 32,000-ton giant, in circumstances that have never been tried before, in an attempt to save over 340 crewmen.

If this is not a drama worth reporting, then nothing is, but then there are so many more important things to write about.

UPDATES: The Voice of Russia is reporting that the Bereg Nadezhdy has been towed "to a safe place" and that the rescue operation has "entered the final, most complicated stage" - the extraction of the Sodruzhestvo.

This, according to Novosti, represents a significant change in strategy. The Bereg Nadezhdy has not been towed clear of the ice. Rather she has been moved to a safer place and "parked", saving time for the icebreakers, which can now turn back earlier than they would otherwise have been able, to reach the Sodruzhestvo.

That they are having to do so suggests an element of urgency, which could mean that the bigger ship is at risk of breaking up. The plan now is to re-unite the factory ship with the fish carrier and then the four vessels will move toward clear waters in a single-file convoy. No timescale has been given.

Voice of Russia meantime notes that "it is for the first time in the last few years that the Tatar Strait has frozen to the bottom ... the ice field is continuously enlarging. It was 25 miles wide only recently, while now the field's width makes up 45 miles".

Just another normal winter, it would seem, with global warming rampant.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS

The worse it seems to get with the Okhotsk Sea crisis, the less information we seem to get. But the latest bulletin (already some hours old) tells us that the Krasin has begun a rescue operation to release the Bereg Nadezhdy fish carrier and the Admiral Makarov icebreaker.

This is almost "tar baby" territory, where one ship gets stuck, another goes into to get it, and it gets stuck as well, with another then sent in after it. Then we are offered stock photographs (above), bearing no relation to reality, showing cheery scenes of icebreakers leading ships through the ice – which is precisely not what is happening,

The agency TASS, as always, is trying to put a gloss on it, advising us that Bereg Nadezhdy will "possibly be freed by Tuesday morning", presumably relying in short memories. The Bereg Nadezhdy was supposed to be freed Saturday, and the Sodruzhestvo was going to be brought out today.


What now seems to be going on is that the Krasin has been cutting its way to the zone of loose ice. Earlier, both the Krasin and the Admiral Makarov had coupled to pull out the Bereg Nadezhdy (type pictured above), but they only managed to cover the distance of 1.5 miles. With the Krasin now leading, the Admiral Makarov has the fish carrier under tow. The convoy has to cover 35 to 40 miles to the zone of loose ice before it can get free, sailing at a speed of one to three knots.

There is still much talk of the difficulties in extracting the Sodruzhestvo, with its 28 metre beam, which makes one wonder whether the public is being prepared for eventual failure of the mission. The weather conditions are still described as "adverse", with high winds and with temperatures having fallen to -23°C.

One report has two Mi-8 helicopters monitoring the rescue effort from the air, which is interesting. These are medium-lift helicopters, carrying up to 34 passengers (more in an emergency) and are not the type equipping icebreakers – which will more usually have the smaller Mi-2 or the Kamov-32. The Mi-8s, therefore, might be on standby for an evacuation, with the Russians preparing for the worst.

There is also some question of whether the Makarov needs to refuel, which could add complications to an already complex situation, although - presumably - it can take off stocks from Sodruzhestvo, which is the support ship for the trawler fleet in the area and should, thus, have supplies available.

COMMENT: OKHOTSK SEA CRISIS